In collaboration with
converge-hybrid.com
Optimising hybrid renewable systems – Kazakhstan
“Wind alone cannot do that.”
How combining wind, solar and a small battery could meet 70–90% of a typical electricity demand profile in Kazakhstan at a lower delivered cost than new coal.
01 / The question
An alternative to another generation of coal
Kazakhstan needs to decide where its electricity will come from over the next few decades. Much of its supply comes from ageing coal plants, while demand continues to grow. With plentiful coal available locally, building another generation of coal plants might seem the natural choice.
Ember wanted to explore another possibility. An independent energy think tank, it uses data and research to help countries move towards clean electricity. Kazakhstan’s strong wind resources offered a promising starting point. Could they provide an affordable alternative to new coal?
Conversations with Converge Hybrid led to a collaboration combining Ember’s knowledge of the country with Converge’s experience in renewable energy and specialist modelling software. Philippe Chabarot contributed technical expertise and co-authored the resulting report.
02 / The method
Solving hour by hour
Every study follows the same five steps, from data to decision: import, configure, simulate, optimise and export.
It starts with the project’s own data: location, wind and solar resource, grid constraints and demand. The team sets equipment, financial and offtake assumptions, then the platform simulates every design hour by hour. The diagram here shows two example days: each wedge is one hour, and the longer the wedge, the more power.
- Morning gap 06:00–09:00 Wind drops before solar rises. Short by up to 13.5 MW.
- Evening peak 18:00–22:00 Demand reaches 120 MW and storage runs low. Short by up to 25.6 MW.
- Midday surplus 09:00–15:00, far more power than demand needs. Up to 131.0 MW curtailed.
- Morning gap 04:00–10:00 Wind drops before solar rises. Short by up to 19.0 MW.
- Evening peak 18:00–22:00 Demand reaches 116.4 MW and storage runs low. Short by up to 28.9 MW.
- Midday surplus 10:00–17:00, far more power than demand needs. Up to 139.4 MW curtailed.
- Demand
- Peak demand
- Wind
- Solar
- Storage discharge
- Storage charging
- Shortfall
- Curtailed
A modelled 48 hours of hourly dispatch in Kazakhstan, using illustrative data representative of average weather. Converge Hybrid, November 2026
Testing the combination
Good wind is only part of the answer. People need electricity throughout the day and across the seasons, including times when the wind is weak. The question was how much of that changing demand renewables could meet, and what it would cost.
Converge explored how wind could work alongside solar panels and batteries to make the most useful electricity available at an affordable price.
The team selected 15 locations near customers and existing power infrastructure, avoiding long connections to distant wind farms. At each, the platform simulated 125 designs over a 30-year project life: half a billion hourly steps.
The platform then ranked every design against the project’s goals, such as delivered cost and the share of demand met, to find the strongest balance of wind, solar and storage.
Finally, the results were reported for each leading option, setting out its financial and technical performance. They form the basis of the findings that follow.
“125 design combinations, simulated hour by hour over a 30-year project life, following electricity production, customer demand and battery use.”
03 / The findings
Profit margins meet demand
Figure 2 / Delivered cost of electricity, $/MWh
70–90%
of a typical electricity demand profile met by hybrid plants, for less than $60 per megawatt hour
Modelled. Source: Ember, Kazakhstan has the wind to power its demand growth, 3 November 2026.
04 / What comes next
From analysis to a wider conversation
The findings appear in Ember’s report, Kazakhstan has the wind to power its demand growth, published on 3 November 2026.
Its central message is straightforward: considering wind, solar and batteries together can reveal possibilities that looking at each separately may miss.
Philippe hopes the report will encourage developers and governments elsewhere to explore hybrid options. The right combination will differ by location, but the starting question is the same: how can the resources available deliver affordable electricity when people need it?
“How can the resources available deliver affordable electricity when people need it?”
Watch our video as Philippe talks about the Ember collaboration project Vimeo link to come
About Converge Hybrid
Converge Hybrid helps developers, policy makers and their advisers find the right balance of wind, solar and battery storage, turning projects under consideration into solutions that are practical and bankable.
Its platform models every combination together, hour by hour across the life of a project. It compares thousands of designs in hours or days, where a conventional study looks at a handful over weeks or months. Each design is tested against cost, return and how well it meets demand.
The team applies that modelling directly, from screening a single site to assessing what renewables can deliver across a national system, as the work with Ember in Kazakhstan shows. Clients can license the platform, engage the consultancy or combine the two.
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